Quarterly Market Commentary

If the first quarter of 2026 was marked by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, the second quarter was characterized by their gradual resolution. The conflict between the United States and Iran, which drove oil prices sharply higher and pressured markets in the first quarter, began to ease as diplomatic efforts gained traction.

The first quarter of 2026 delivered a stark reminder that geopolitical risks remain one of the most powerful forces in financial markets.

U.S. equity markets delivered strong results in the fourth quarter, with the S&P 500 ending 2025 at 6,845.50, slightly below all-time highs.

As we conclude the third quarter, the market narrative continues to evolve, weaving together threads of resilience with emerging signals of caution.

As we reflect on the first half of 2025, one thing is abundantly clear: change has arrived with speed and scale that few anticipated.

As we entered 2025, the market was priced for perfection and undoubtedly another year of overcoming challenges and redefining limits against a backdrop of elevated U.S. equity market valuations, mega-cap dominance, and uncertainty surrounding the policy agenda of President Trump.

Despite headwinds of elevated interest rates, rising unemployment, turmoil in the Middle East, and the ongoing Russia/Ukraine war, the economy proved resilient. Corporate profits rose and the once anticipated recession never materialized.

The summer months presented the market with challenges as August’s disappointing economic data evoked fears of slowing growth and the greater potential for recession.

A Narrow Market Continues: Markets finished a strong first half driven largely by mega-cap technology companies and shifting expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Changing of the Guard: The equity market’s ferocious run at the end of 2023 continued into 2024 with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Average, and Nasdaq, all reaching new highs on a regular basis.